The gulf between BMW’s operational performance and its stock market fortunes has seldom been wider. While the Munich-based automaker is racking up double-digit sales growth in two of its three core regions, its shares have lost nearly two-fifths of their value since the start of 2026, driven by a toxic mix of index ejections, a halved profit forecast and a deepening slump in China.
On Thursday, the stock closed at €58.50 after shedding another 1.32%, hovering just above its 12-month trough of €57.06. The pain is largely mechanical: BMW has been booted from the S&P Europe and FTSE All-World indices, triggering a wave of forced selling by passive exchange-traded funds that track those benchmarks. That technical headwind comes on top of the June profit warning, which saw management slash its automotive margin target to a range of 1% to 3%, reflecting both weak Chinese demand and the heavy cost of restructuring.
None of this is evident from the sales figures. In the United States, second-quarter deliveries jumped 13% to more than 102,000 vehicles, led by the X-series line-up, which now accounts for over half of BMW’s American volume. On home soil, the story is even brighter. German registrations rose nearly 19% in June, leaving rivals Mercedes-Benz and Audi in the dust and pushing BMW ahead of Mercedes on a first-half basis.
The domestic surge has a distinctly electric flavour. The X1 topped BMW’s internal German sales chart with roughly 5,400 new registrations in June, followed closely by the X3, both heavily dependent on their fully electric iX1 and iX3 variants. Without those battery-powered versions, analysts note, both nameplates would have suffered a steep drop-off. The shift is equally pronounced higher up the range: nearly half of new 7-series buyers now choose an electric powertrain, while the i4 accounts for more than 51% of 4-series registrations. Next up is the i3 First Edition, due to hit showrooms by the end of the year.
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Yet none of that momentum is enough to offset the China headache. The country’s market, a former profit engine for BMW, is crumbling, especially for combustion-engined models, and the group’s lowered full-year guidance hangs over every trading session. Restructuring costs, including the planned elimination of roughly 7,700 jobs, are adding further drag.
Chart-watchers note the stock is deeply oversold, with the relative strength index at 31.5 and the price sitting 29% below its 200-day moving average — a historically wide gap. That technical position has not deterred most analysts. LBBW recently lifted its price target to €85.00, arguing that BMW’s strong US market position is being undervalued. DZ Bank cut its fair value to €75.00 but kept a buy rating, pointing to a price-to-earnings multiple of around seven.
Investors will get the next set of clues on July 10, when BMW holds its pre-close call, where pricing strategy in China and details of the cost-cutting programme are expected to be top of the agenda. The half-year results follow on July 30, offering a full reckoning with the scale of the Asian downturn and the pace of the electric transition closer to home.
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