Code in a Box, Cash in the Bank: Take-Two Rides GTA VI’s Pre-Order Tsunami Past the Disc-Only Backlash

Grand Theft Auto VI isn’t even out yet, but it’s already rewriting the rulebook – and testing the patience of retailers and collectors alike. The game’s physical edition arrives on November 19 without a disc, containing only a download code, a move that has sparked boycotts from specialty shops and sent die-hard fans to social media in fury. Yet that controversy has done nothing to cool demand. Within 24 hours of pre-orders opening on June 25, French retailer Cdiscount reported six times as many advance orders for GTA VI as Call of Duty typically logs over its entire pre-order window.

The disc-free strategy has direct financial implications. Retailers normally pocket around 30% of the sale price, but with a code-in-a-box model they lose that margin entirely – and Rockstar sidesteps the used-game market completely. At least two Canadian and U.S. outlets, Video Games Plus and Loot Box Gaming, have refused to stock the title on principle. Even some GameStop locations are seeing lackluster foot traffic; one employee recounted selling just five standard copies on a single day, far below the 500 expected. The explanation? Many buyers are skipping the physical tier altogether and heading straight for the digital-only Ultimate Edition at $99.99, which delivers higher margins to Take-Two. The base standard edition is priced at $79.99, a new benchmark for mainstream titles that the industry is using to test pricing power.

Hardware supply could prove a more stubborn obstacle than any retail boycott. PlayStation 5 pre-orders are outstripping Xbox Series X|S by a ratio of six to one, according to trade sources, while both consoles face component shortages ahead of the holiday season. Microsoft has already raised prices: from August 1, 512 GB models will cost $100 more and 1 TB models $150 more. Xbox strategy chief Matthew Ball conceded that demand already exceeds available supply. Sony, meanwhile, has warned that key components remain expensive, putting pressure on PlayStation 5 profit margins. If hardware isn’t on shelves, the addressable market for GTA VI shrinks automatically.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Take-Two?

Wall Street, however, is brushing aside both the disc debate and the console bottlenecks. Of 32 analysts covering Take-Two, 30 rate the stock a Buy. BMO Capital’s Brian Pitz recently lifted his price target to $285 from $280, while Bank of America targets a Street-high $368. The average price target stands at $281.67, comfortably above the current share price of around €217 (roughly $225). Consensus estimates for the December quarter – the first full period with GTA VI in the market – call for revenue of about $3.28 billion, a year-over-year jump of 86%, and EBITDA of roughly $900 million. The fiscal year that just ended already showed strong momentum: GAAP net sales rose 18% to $6.66 billion, with total net bookings up 19% to $6.72 billion.

Take-Two’s stock has advanced about 11% over the past 30 days, landing just shy of the 52-week high of €225.30. The relative strength index sits at 69.3, inching toward overbought territory – a level that momentum traders monitor but that doesn’t faze the analysts calling for further upside. The November launch, timed just before the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., will deliver a full quarter of revenue before Take-Two’s fiscal year ends in March 2027. The disc-only backlash and console shortages may dominate headlines, but for the moment the market is betting that record pre-orders and digital margins will carry the day.