Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Strategy Weighs Heavily as Unrealized Losses Mount

Metaplanet enters 2026 facing significant financial headwinds, with its aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin now creating substantial pressure on its balance sheet. The company’s high-risk digital asset strategy is revealing its downside, coinciding with a steep decline in the firm’s share price, which has surrendered nearly all of its previous valuation premium.

Unrealized Losses Exceed Half a Billion Dollars

The company’s recent purchase of 4,279 Bitcoin for $451 million near the end of 2025 has proven costly in the short term. This acquisition brings Metaplanet’s total holdings to 35,102 BTC, ranking as the fourth-largest corporate Bitcoin treasury globally. The core issue is the disparity between the company’s average purchase price and the current market value. With an average cost basis of $107,606 per Bitcoin against a current trading price near $87,000, the firm is sitting on approximately $520 million in unrealized book losses.

This financial strain is directly impacting market valuation. The ratio of the company’s market value to its modified net asset value (mNAV) has dropped sharply from 1.17 to 1.03. This compression indicates that the market is assigning almost no value to Metaplanet’s operational business, with the stock now trading nearly in line with the underlying value of its Bitcoin holdings.

Key Fourth-Quarter 2025 Figures:

• Bitcoin Acquired: 4,279 BTC at an average price of $105,412
• Total Treasury: 35,102 BTC (current approximate value: $3.07 billion)
• Total Cost Basis: $3.78 billion
• Projected Bitcoin-Derived Income (FY 2025): $55 million

Share Price Volatility Mirrors Crypto Market Swings

The stock’s performance clearly reflects its dependence on cryptocurrency market movements. On December 30, shares closed at 405 Japanese Yen (JPY), marking a single-day drop of almost 8%. Despite an 8% gain for the year, the stock remains roughly 80% below its all-time high of 1,930 JPY reached in June 2025. This tight correlation with Bitcoin’s price creates a leveraged volatility effect: declines in Bitcoin often trigger disproportionately larger sell-offs in Metaplanet’s equity.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Metaplanet?

One stabilizing element is the firm’s “Bitcoin Income Generation” division. By utilizing derivative-based strategies, the company anticipates generating roughly $55 million in revenue for the 2025 fiscal year. This approach aims to produce ongoing earnings from its crypto assets rather than merely holding them passively.

Technical Analysis and Strategic Ambitions

From a chart perspective, the stock appears to be consolidating. It is currently trading within a range bounded by a support level at 388 JPY and a resistance level at 478 JPY. A sustained break below the 388 JPY support could precipitate a further decline toward the 335 JPY area.

Metaplanet’s long-term goal of amassing 210,000 Bitcoin by 2027 remains highly ambitious. To acquire the necessary additional 175,000 BTC, the company would need to deploy approximately $15 billion at current prices. Shareholders have already authorized new capital-raising measures intended to attract institutional investment.

With the Tokyo exchange closed for a holiday, the next trading session will provide the first clear indication of how the market ultimately assesses the company’s latest expansion of its digital asset reserves.