Nasdaq 100 Bruises the Record with Iran Deal Tailwind and Fed in the Wings

The Nasdaq 100 is breathing down the neck of its all-time high, carried by a geopolitical shock that has crushed oil prices and a blistering rally in SpaceX that is reshaping the tech landscape. The index closed Tuesday near 30,345 points, just 1.4% shy of the 30,762 record set on June 3, and has already piled on more than 20% since the start of the year. But with the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting kicking off and a new chair at the helm, the euphoria is laced with caution.

Oil’s plunge hands tech a disinflation gift

The catalyst for the latest leg higher came from an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough. A tentative peace agreement between the US and Iran, which includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, sent Brent crude sliding more than 4%. On the other side of the Atlantic, the price of WTI crude tumbled over 5% to $80.37 a barrel. For growth-oriented technology stocks, lower energy costs act as a powerful disinflationary force, reducing input expenses and easing pressure on consumer spending.

That narrative was reinforced by a drop in the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note to 4.46%, which burnishes the valuation case for high-growth equities. The combination of falling oil and lower bond yields has been a potent cocktail for the Nasdaq 100, which on Monday punched through the psychological 30,000 barrier to close at 30,485 points. The index has since edged slightly higher.

SpaceX steals the show — and Amazon’s crown

At the company level, SpaceX remains the dominant force. The space exploration giant, which went public only last week, surged nearly 20% to $192.46 a share, briefly surpassing Amazon in market capitalisation and pushing its own valuation above $2 trillion. Trading volumes in SpaceX exceeded the combined turnover of Nvidia, Microsoft and Tesla. The rally gained extra fuel from news that SpaceX is acquiring AI-coding startup Anysphere in a $60 billion deal.

The knock-on effect lifted the semiconductor space. Western Digital jumped roughly 9%, while Seagate added nearly 8%. Meanwhile, the upcoming index rebalancing on June 22 is generating fresh demand for stocks set to enter the Nasdaq 100. Nebius rocketed 12% after a hedge fund took a stake, and Astera Labs also posted solid gains ahead of its inclusion.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying NASDAQ 100?

Not every story was positive. Fox, the media company, announced plans to acquire Roku for $22 billion, a move that spooked investors over the bridge financing required. Shares of Fox slumped nearly 17% in a double-digit rout.

Technical picture: strength with a subtle crack

From a technical perspective, the index remains firmly in an uptrend. It is trading well above its 50-day moving average — now at 28,822 points per the primary source or 28,686 per another — and roughly 16.5% above the 200-day line. The relative strength index (RSI) sits at 59, a comfortable but not overbought reading. Yet a slight divergence is emerging: as the price probes new highs, the RSI has failed to show corresponding momentum in recent weeks, a pattern that sometimes warns of waning buying pressure.

Resistance is clearly defined at the 30,762 record. A closing print above that level would open the door to 31,000 points. On the downside, the 30,000 mark provides initial psychological support.

Fed day looms large

The main event for investors is the Fed’s decision, due Wednesday and the first under new chair Kevin Warsh. No change in the fed funds rate — currently at 3.50-3.75% — is expected. But the market is pricing a 42% probability of a rate hike, according to the secondary article, making Warsh’s press conference critical. If the oil slide holds and the peace agreement sticks, the path toward rate cuts later this year could become more credible. Bond markets are already starting to price that scenario.

Warsh’s comments on inflation dynamics and the extent to which the oil slump filters into the Fed’s projections will determine whether the Nasdaq 100 can finally eclipse its all-time high or stall just short of the summit.