Nebius: Record Revenue Meets Relentless Volatility in the AI Infrastructure Race

Investors who bought Nebius shares at last summer’s trough have seen their position swell by roughly 350% in twelve months. The stock that bottomed out at €38 in July 2025 now trades near €212 — but not without a brutal weekly loss of nearly 15% that sent shivers through a market already on edge. That contradiction sums up the Nebius story: a company that is delivering jaw-dropping growth numbers while its shares whipsaw as though the future is still being written.

From Yandex’s ashes to NVIDIA’s bet

Nebius emerged from the restructuring of Yandex N.V. in 2024, headquartered in Amsterdam with a singular focus: build purpose-built infrastructure for artificial intelligence. Instead of repurposing generic cloud services, the company designs its own servers and network software to optimize GPU-intensive training and inference at industrial scale. It is a bet on structural scarcity — compute power that cannot keep pace with the explosion of AI model sizes and production deployments.

That bet drew a $2 billion investment from NVIDIA in March 2026, a move that secures priority access to the chipmaker’s latest GPU platforms for Nebius and guarantees a large-scale customer for NVIDIA. Add to that multi-billion-dollar contracts with Microsoft and Meta, and the company has assembled a partner roster that few can replicate. Management has set its sights on building over five gigawatts of GPU capacity globally by 2030.

Revenue explosion with a wide guidance range

The first quarter of 2026 laid out the trajectory: revenue surged to $399 million, a 684% year-over-year leap, with approximately 98% coming from AI cloud services. Annualized recurring revenue climbed at nearly the same pace, up 674% from the prior year. For the full year, management guided for revenue between $7 billion and $9 billion — a spread wide enough to fuel both optimism and doubt.

At a market capitalisation of roughly €53 billion, the company is no stealth growth story. The stock has more than doubled year to date, posting a 176% gain, but that still leaves it about 19% below the all-time high of €261 set on 22 June 2026. The annualised 30-day volatility runs near 98%, a reminder that weekly swings of 10% to 15% are not aberrations but the normal operating climate.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?

Technical signals point to a market in limbo

The recent pullback has pushed the relative strength index to 50.6 — solidly neutral territory. Yet the shares remain 15% above their 50-day moving average and nearly 90% above the 200-day moving average, underscoring how far and how fast the price has run. That long-term gap is a hallmark of stocks that have compressed years of expected growth into months of price action.

The question hanging over the stock is whether the correction is a healthy consolidation — or the beginning of a deeper repricing for a sector where valuations depend on promises yet to be fully delivered. The company itself is moving to stay ahead of expectations. On 24 June 2026, it launched AI Cloud 3.6, a platform update that includes Nebius Echo, an agent that lets users control cloud infrastructure through natural language. The feature is more than a marketing differentiator; it signals that Nebius is actively defending its technological edge rather than simply riding demand.

Capacity, capital, and the challenge ahead

As a capital-intensive growth story, Nebius embodies a familiar dilemma: enormous ambition, relentless spending, and a market that punishes any stumble. The company is building data centres in Europe and the United States, integrating new hardware at a breakneck pace, and advancing its platform simultaneously. None of that comes cheap. The current valuation presupposes that growth will not only continue but accelerate.

For now, the numbers justify the narrative. But the gap between a €399 million quarterly revenue run rate and a €53 billion market cap implies that the market is already pricing in the next two to three years of expansion. Nebius has the partners, the product, and the pipeline to back that up. The volatility it carries is the price of admission to one of the most demanding arenas in technology.