Novo Nordisk Faces a New Front: 300-Fold Rise in GLP-1 Scripts for Children Under 12

Novo Nordisk’s growth narrative has acquired an uncomfortable new dimension. A Reuters-reported study shows prescriptions for GLP-1 weight-loss drugs among US children under twelve have surged more than 300-fold since 2019, with Wegovy the dominant choice in that age bracket. The finding lands at a delicate moment for the Danish drugmaker, which is simultaneously defending its pricing structure in America, rolling out an oral version of its blockbuster therapy in Europe, and preparing for a pivotal investor day later this month.

The paediatric data shifts the conversation away from pure sales volumes and toward prescribing ethics and regulatory exposure. A spike of this magnitude in a vulnerable patient group is the kind of statistic that attracts scrutiny from US regulators and paediatric bodies. Should the trend trigger political or medical pushback, it would hit Novo Nordisk at a time when the company is already fighting to protect its growth trajectory on multiple fronts.

A Pill Launch Overshadowed by US Prescribing Questions

The paediatric study arrives just days after Novo Nordisk introduced the Wegovy tablet in Germany — its first EU market for the oral formulation. The launch was designed to counter intensifying competitive pressure from Eli Lilly and inject fresh momentum into Europe’s largest pharmaceutical market. But the US prescribing data now threatens to dominate the narrative, at least temporarily eclipsing the German rollout.

The company’s pricing concessions, agreed in November, continue to weigh on earnings expectations. Through the TrumpRx programme, US patients will pay $350 per month for Ozempic and Wegovy — down from $1,000 and $1,350 respectively — while NovoLog and Tresiba have been set at $35 monthly. Those reductions, combined with a possible regulatory debate over paediatric prescriptions, compound the strain on the company’s growth story.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?

Stock Under Pressure as Market Day Approaches

The market’s mood was evident on Friday, when shares slipped 1.8 percent to close at €40.09. The stock remains down 8.9 percent year-to-date and sits 27 percent below its January 23 high of €54.86. Still, the equity trades roughly a third above its March 2 low of €27.00 — a sign that the sell-off may have found a floor, even if the recovery has stalled.

Investor attention now pivots to the capital markets day on September 21, which Reuters has flagged as a central catalyst for expectations around the obesity franchise. The event carries particular weight given the divergent signals emanating from the company. JPMorgan, after management meetings on September 3, maintained a neutral rating with a price target of DKK 275, noting that executives highlighted the Wegovy tablet launch as a key milestone. Deutsche Bank struck a far more bearish tone the same day, downgrading the stock to sell with a DKK 265 target, citing pre-event uncertainty and arguing that the pipeline candidate Ziltivekimab is effectively out of contention following a failed late-stage study goal.

Management’s Balancing Act

For Novo Nordisk’s leadership, the September 21 gathering represents an opportunity to reconcile competing pressures: US price deflation, pipeline setbacks, the oral Wegovy expansion, and now the paediatric prescribing question. How management frames the children’s data will be closely watched — whether it can contain the debate before it becomes a regulatory issue could determine whether the stock finds relief or remains trapped in its current volatile range.

In a smaller personnel note, Myriam Mezher assumed leadership for Greece and Cyprus on September 1, succeeding Olympios Papadimitriou, who departed after 32 years with the company. But for investors, the defining moment remains the capital markets day, where the company must demonstrate it can weave together a coherent strategy from pricing pressures, pipeline disappointments, and new market opportunities — all while a fresh controversy over paediatric prescriptions simmers in the background.