Novo Nordisk’s Oral Wegovy Push Hits Germany and China as the Bull-Bear Battle Widens

The Danish pharma giant is placing its biggest strategic bet on a pill — but the market is still weighing whether that’s enough to offset a bruised growth narrative that has knocked nearly a third off the share price since January.

Novo Nordisk launched the oral version of Wegovy in Germany last Friday, marking the first market worldwide to sell the tablet form of the blockbuster weight-loss drug following EU approval in July. The move is significant because oral formulations are widely viewed as the key to removing injection anxiety and unlocking new patient groups. Barely a week later, the company confirmed that China’s drug regulator has accepted its application for the same tablet — a potentially pivotal step given the country’s vast population of patients with obesity and diabetes, though no timeline for approval was given.

The dual-front push comes at a moment when the investment case for Novo Nordisk has rarely looked more contested. The stock closed Friday at €40.09, down 1.8 percent on the day, leaving it roughly 27 percent below its 52-week high of €54.86 reached in January. Year-to-date losses stand at 8.9 percent, while the 12-month decline is 17 percent. The shares are trading near their 200-day moving average of €40.16, with an RSI of 48.2 indicating neither oversold nor overbought conditions.

A Guidance Cut That Reshaped the Debate

The second-quarter numbers painted a picture of operational resilience that belied the darker headlines. Adjusted revenue grew 7 percent on a currency-adjusted basis, while adjusted operating profit rose 11 percent. Yet management simultaneously trimmed its full-year outlook to a range of zero to minus 6 percent for adjusted revenue growth — a stark acknowledgment that the second half will be considerably tougher than previously anticipated.

That guidance reduction has given ammunition to the bears. Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock to Sell in late August with a price target of DKK 265, citing fading growth prospects for 2027, the failure of late-stage cardiovascular candidate Ziltivekimab, and looming patent expirations that could erode pricing power across core products. Citi followed in early September, reaffirming its Sell rating at the same DKK 265 target and pointing to a slowdown in GLP-1 prescription trends.

The bulls, however, have not gone silent. JPMorgan raised its price target to DKK 275 in early August after management meetings, lifting 2026 sales forecasts by 5 percent on expectations of less generics erosion for Ozempic than feared and more favorable price-cost dynamics in the US. The bank kept its Neutral stance but flagged the oral Wegovy launch as a potential catalyst.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?

US Pricing Concessions Add to the Squeeze

The competitive and pricing pressures are not merely theoretical. Reuters reported that Novo Nordisk agreed in November to cut US prices for its semaglutide products — Wegovy and Ozempic will be available for $350 per month through Medicare, Medicaid, and a direct-to-consumer channel dubbed TrumpRx. Insulin products NovoLog and Tresiba are slated for $35 monthly through the same route. These concessions secure access to a critical market but compress profitability in what has been the company’s central growth engine.

Meanwhile, Eli Lilly has received FDA approval for Mounjaro to reduce cardiovascular risk in type-2 diabetes patients with elevated heart risk — an expansion that intensifies competition in the GLP-1 arena where Novo Nordisk has long held a leading position with Wegovy and Rybelsus.

Insider Selling and Volatility Tell Their Own Story

Adding to the cautious tone, company insiders have been net sellers over the past 90 days, with sales totaling roughly DKK 2.95 million and no offsetting purchases. That doesn’t substitute for fundamental analysis, but it hardly signals executive enthusiasm for the stock. The shares’ annualized volatility stands at 41 percent, underscoring how heavily news flow is driving price action.

The company’s oral Wegovy has already secured approvals in the US, UK, EU, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain. A Chinese entry would be strategically significant but remains speculative for now.

All roads now lead to London, where Novo Nordisk hosts its capital markets day on September 21. Management will need to reconcile the competing narratives — solid quarterly execution, a lowered outlook, pipeline setbacks, and a promising new oral therapy — into a coherent strategy that can restore confidence. The question of whether innovation alone can defend market share against a resurgent competitor and pricing headwinds won’t be settled in a single presentation. But it will reveal how seriously the company itself takes the doubts that have accumulated around its stock.