OHB’s Free Float Squeeze Nears a Release as KKR Exit and Rocket Flight Converge

Just 5.7% of OHB’s shares currently change hands freely — a structural bottleneck that has turned the stock into a high-volatility play and kept institutional money on the sidelines. That could change by June 30, when private equity house KKR aims to place roughly 20% of its 29% stake. If the transaction succeeds, the free float would jump to around 26%, potentially smoothing the extreme swings that have seen the stock’s annualised volatility top 148%. The shares closed Friday at €409.00, having surged 236% since the start of the year and tacked on nearly 10% in the past week alone.

The KKR overhang has been the dominant drag on OHB’s equity narrative. An initial placement attempt failed on June 12, and the race is now on to complete a second try before month-end. Seven banks are working on the deal. The outcome will determine not only the ownership structure but also the trading dynamics: with just 1.09 million of the company’s 19.2 million shares in free float, even modest buying or selling has historically triggered outsized price moves.

While the shareholder drama plays out, the operational engine is running at full throttle. OHB’s total output rose 15% in the first quarter to €279.3 million, and the order backlog hit a record €3.35 billion at the end of March. That pipeline was further fattened at the ILA Berlin air show, where the company locked in new contracts and deepened its military-space ties. A joint venture with Rheinmetall for secure Bundeswehr satellite communications has been formally registered in Bremen, while the KIRK partnership with drone start-up Helsing — now including seven start-ups and mid-caps — is developing an AI-powered space reconnaissance system.

The biggest prize on the table is SPOCK 2, a next-generation Bundeswehr battlefield surveillance satellite constellation with an estimated contract value of €5 billion. OHB has secured a lead role in the bid. Separately, its Italian subsidiary won a scientific contract to build a specialised camera for the European Space Agency’s RAMSES mission to analyse asteroids.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying OHB SE?

Beyond the military and civil programmes, July brings a high-risk, high-reward milestone. OHB’s rocket subsidiary, Rocket Factory Augsburg (RFA), has applied for a launch window starting July 1 from the Shetland Islands, with seven satellites on board. The company will conduct a final hot-fire test beforehand. Management has deliberately dampened expectations, noting that statistically more than 70% of maiden flights of new launch systems fail. The rocket venture is not factored into OHB’s 2024 financial guidance and remains “an exciting additional option” for now.

One more factor could weigh on near-term sentiment. The recent annual general meeting authorised the issuance of convertible bonds, which market observers interpret as a preparatory step for a potential billion-euro capital increase. That would further dilute existing shareholders, though it would also provide firepower for the ambitious expansion plans CEO Marco Fuchs has laid out — including the target of doubling total output to over €2 billion by 2028.

The next two weeks will therefore be pivotal. A successful KKR placement by June 30 would lift the biggest cloud over the stock, boosting liquidity and allowing the market to focus on the operational momentum. A failure would leave the free float squeeze in place and reignite uncertainty. Either way, the RFA launch on July 1 offers a binary catalyst that could reinforce or undermine the bullish case. For now, OHB sits at the intersection of three powerful forces: a shareholder exit, a record order book, and a countdown to the launch pad.