The Platform Group’s EBITDA Surges 37%, but a Perfect Storm of Headwinds Keeps the Stock in the Doldrums

The Platform Group (TPG) kicked off 2026 with a sharp ramp in earnings, yet the market reaction tells a very different story. The Düsseldorf-based platform operator reported adjusted EBITDA of €21.8 million for the first quarter, a 37.1% jump that already represents roughly 30% of the full-year target. But rather than rewarding the progress, investors have kept selling — the stock slid 4.14% on Thursday to €2.78, and the year-to-date decline has deepened past 45%.

Revenue for the quarter surged 51% to €243.1 million, up from €160.8 million a year earlier. The gross merchandise volume climbed 23% to €438.4 million, driven by a 42% expansion in active customers to more than 8.1 million, and the number of affiliated partners reached 17,221. The growth, however, came with a cost: gross margin contracted by 40 basis points, underscoring the pricing pressure or higher acquisition expenses typical in a scaling platform business. Net income dipped slightly to €17.7 million from €18.2 million in the prior-year period, a decline that management attributed to a non-recurring positive item that had inflated the comparison base.

Behind the headline numbers, the company is grappling with a changing macro landscape. CEO Dominik Benner explicitly cited the fallout from the Iran war — specifically higher interest and logistics costs — as the catalyst for a strategic pivot. TPG is now prioritizing integration and deleveraging over further acquisitions. The leverage ratio stood at 2.1x adjusted EBITDA at the end of 2025, with a target to bring it down to between 1.0x and 1.4x by 2030. Financing will shift toward long-term bank loans, equity, and a bond, supplemented by active working-capital management.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying The Platform Group?

The most immediate test for the new discipline is the planned acquisition of AEP. The closing conditions have not yet been met, pushing the expected completion to June 2026. The delay has added to market unease, particularly after six capital increases this year that have diluted existing shareholders and signaled persistent capital needs — a contradiction to the EBITDA strength that many investors find hard to reconcile.

Despite the headwinds, management reaffirmed the full-year guidance in full: a GMV of €1.7 billion, net revenue of €1.0 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of between €70 million and €80 million. Pro forma with AEP, revenue would reach €2.0 billion. The longer-term Vision 2030 is even more ambitious — targeting €3.0 to €3.2 billion in revenue, double-digit margins, and over 40,000 partners.

Analyst firm mwb research remains bullish, sticking with a “BUY” rating and a price target of €19.50 — roughly seven times the current share price. The 30-day volatility stands at 154%, and the relative strength index sits at 39.6, close to oversold territory but without a clear bottom formation. The stock is now trading just 10% above its 52-week low of €2.53, and nearly 50% below the February high of €5.50. Whether the combination of operational momentum and a tighter strategic focus can rebuild investor trust will likely hinge on the AEP closing — and on TPG’s ability to show it can grow profitably without further dilution.