Dear readers,
Yesterday we noted that Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report — consensus at 62,000 — would determine whether the labor market narrative stayed benign or shifted. The answer arrived this afternoon, and it wasn’t close. The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, nearly double what analysts expected, and the unemployment rate held at 4.3 percent. The American consumer still has a paycheck, and the service economy built on top of that paycheck is still growing. Whether that’s enough to offset oil above $100 a barrel, a fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, and a European market buckling under the weight of both — that’s the question this Friday afternoon.
115,000 Jobs and a Fed That Isn’t Moving
The April payrolls number landed with force. Forecasts had clustered between 55,000 and 65,000 new nonfarm positions. The actual print of 115,000 was broad-based but tilted heavily toward services, with healthcare alone contributing 37,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent month-over-month and 3.6 percent year-over-year — warm enough to keep the inflation conversation alive, cool enough to avoid panic.
For the Federal Reserve, the math is straightforward. A labor market this solid, combined with oil-driven price pressures, gives Jerome Powell zero reason to cut rates from the current 3.5-to-3.75-percent corridor. He said as much this week. The futures market has taken the hint: rate cuts have been pushed deep into the back half of the year, if they arrive at all.
Platform Earnings Confirm the Consumer Is Spending
Yesterday we highlighted Uber’s strong adjusted EBITDA as evidence that American consumers refuse to cooperate with recession forecasts. The full earnings picture reinforces that read. Uber reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.72, beating the $0.69 consensus, on revenue of $13.20 billion — up 14.5 percent year-over-year. The company logged 3.6 billion trips, a 20 percent increase, and guided second-quarter EPS to $0.78–$0.82. Truist raised its price target to $112. Separately, Uber-backed Lime filed for a Nasdaq IPO after revenue jumped 29.1 percent to $886.7 million in 2025.
Lyft had a rougher quarter. Earnings per share of $0.04 missed expectations slightly, with winter storms compressing ride volume to 236.9 million trips. But the company’s Q2 outlook — gross bookings of $5.30 billion to $5.43 billion — was enough to keep investors from heading for the exits.
The travel sector tells a split story. Airbnb is growing its hotel vertical at more than twice the rate of its core business and raised full-year guidance. Expedia is absorbing the geopolitical shock more directly: the stock dropped nearly 9 percent in premarket trading. First-quarter revenue of $3.43 billion topped estimates, but CEO Ariane Gorin flagged elevated cancellations in March tied to the Middle East conflict and Mexico travel warnings. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was cut to $15.6–$16.0 billion.
DAX Slides as Germany Reaches for the Red Pen
Across the Atlantic, the mood is considerably darker. The DAX fell 0.93 percent to 24,434 on Friday afternoon. Rheinmetall was the session’s biggest casualty, dropping 7.36 percent to €1,242.80 — its lowest since April 2025 — after a wave of analyst downgrades.
Corporate Germany is cutting headcount. Porsche announced the elimination of more than 500 positions at subsidiaries including Cellforce and eBike Performance as it refocuses on its core business. Commerzbank confirmed plans to shed 3,000 jobs. And the political backdrop isn’t helping: the Bundesrat blocked a proposed relief payment of up to €1,000 per worker designed to offset surging energy costs from the Iran conflict. Saxony’s minister-president Michael Kretschmer accused the federal government of shifting the burden onto states and businesses. A retroactive electric-vehicle subsidy — €1,500 to €6,000 for buyers earning under €80,000 — did clear the upper chamber.
On the monetary front, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel warned explicitly about rising inflation, and markets are now pricing in three or more rate hikes. President Trump added a layer of transatlantic tension by threatening higher tariffs on the EU by July 4.
Coinbase Posts a Loss as Crypto Retreats
Yesterday we described Coinbase’s 700-person layoff as a cost-control measure in a volatile revenue environment. The numbers behind that decision are now public and worse than expected. Coinbase reported a first-quarter net loss of $394 million on revenue of $1.41 billion, a 31 percent decline year-over-year. The 700 cuts represent 14 percent of the workforce. Shares fell roughly 5 percent after hours. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has slipped below $80,000 under pressure from the oil shock — a stark reversal from the $82,850 three-month high it touched earlier this week.
The Takeaway
The U.S. labor market just handed the service economy another quarter of runway. Uber, Airbnb, and the broader platform cohort are converting employed consumers into revenue growth, and the April payrolls number suggests that pipeline isn’t drying up. But the forces arrayed against continued calm are formidable: oil above $100, a Middle East ceasefire held together by Pakistani diplomacy, Trump threatening EU tariffs by Independence Day, and the ECB pivoting toward tightening while German industry sheds jobs.
The resilience of American domestic demand has been the load-bearing wall of this market for months. On Friday, it held. The question is how much weight you can keep stacking on top of it before something gives.
Have a great weekend.
Best regards,
The StocksToday.com Editorial
