Siemens Energy’s SpaceX Scare Fades, But the Stock Still Has Ground to Make Up

When Elon Musk’s rocket company reportedly floated plans to manufacture its own turbine blades, Siemens Energy investors flinched. The August 31 knee-jerk reaction knocked as much as 4.4 percent off the share price in a single session, as traders fretted that the world’s richest man might be plotting an assault on the gas turbine franchise.

Those fears have since been walked back — and not just by one or two sympathetic analysts.

JPMorgan’s Phil Buller took the unusual step of picking up the phone to both SpaceX and turbine blade maker Howmet to separate fact from speculation. His conclusion: the components are destined for Musk’s own AI data center power needs, not for sale into the open market. That is a captive-supply play, not a competitive threat.

The nuance matters. Siemens Energy’s gas turbine business contributes only around a tenth of group revenue, Buller reminded clients, as he stuck with an “Overweight” rating and a €245 price target — the most bullish call on the Street.

Jefferies took a marginally more cautious line, trimming its target from €215 to €210 while keeping a “Buy” recommendation. Deutsche Bank, also at €210 with a “Buy,” framed the SpaceX news less as a menace and more as a telling data point: the sheer electricity appetite of AI data centers is now so vast that even Musk feels compelled to secure his own supply chain.

Even if SpaceX did pivot toward external sales, analysts reckon it would take years to build meaningful manufacturing capacity, leaving near-term pricing dynamics untouched.

A Record Quarter Softens the Blow

The analyst reassurances land against a backdrop of unusually strong operational momentum. Siemens Energy booked a record order intake of €17.9 billion in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, pushing the order backlog to an all-time high of €162 billion.

Comparable revenue climbed 18.5 percent to €11.4 billion, while earnings before special items nearly tripled to €1.62 billion. Even Siemens Gamesa, the offshore wind unit that has been the group’s problem child, swung to a positive quarterly result for the first time since fiscal 2022.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Siemens Energy?

Management held its full-year guidance: comparable revenue growth of 14 to 16 percent and an operating margin between 10 and 12 percent.

The Market Remains Skeptical — For Now

Yet the share price tells a more guarded story. Friday’s close of €147.08 represented a 0.9 percent gain for the session, but the stock is still down 2.7 percent over the past month — evidence that the SpaceX scare has not been fully digested despite the wave of analyst pushback.

The gap to the April peak of €195.38 stands at roughly 25 percent. Longer-term holders have little to complain about: the equity is up 22 percent year-to-date and 65 percent over twelve months.

Technical traders will note the shares are trading below their 50-day moving average, a sign of near-term weakness. The analyst target range of €210 to €245 implies substantial upside from current levels, assuming the operational improvements hold.

A Structural Shift in the Background

Complicating the picture is a corporate reorganization now getting underway. Siemens Energy recently began preparatory work to legally and operationally separate its Transformation of Industry division — a multi-step process that would eventually establish the unit as a standalone entity, reportedly under the Omterra brand.

No spin-off has been completed; this is the opening phase of what promises to be a lengthy carve-out. The move responds to long-standing institutional investor demands for greater transparency into the value drivers of each business segment, and it may factor into future analyst assessments even if the recent target changes primarily reflect operational and market dynamics.

The next scheduled catalyst arrives November 11, when fourth-quarter results for fiscal 2026 are due. That report will show whether the record order momentum and margin expansion can carry through to year-end — and whether the stock can finally close the gap to those analyst targets.