Almonty’s High-Stakes Tuesday: Convertible Close, AGM, and a 14% Weekly Slide Set the Stage

A week that could reshape Almonty Industries is here, and the tungsten producer’s stock is already under pressure. Shares have shed nearly 14% over the past seven days, closing at C$22.70 in Toronto on Friday — roughly one-third below the April high of C$33.35. Yet the coming days pack a series of catalysts that management hopes will reverse the slide and cement the company’s transformation into a global tungsten powerhouse.

The most immediate event lands on Tuesday, June 9, when the company simultaneously closes its heavily oversubscribed convertible note offering and holds its annual shareholder meeting in Toronto. The bond issuance totals US$700 million with a 2.25% coupon maturing in 2031, and a greenshoe option allows underwriters to demand an additional US$100 million within 13 days. Net proceeds, after a US$83 million outlay for capped-call transactions that limit dilution on conversion, are expected to reach roughly US$675.9 million — or US$772.7 million if the overallotment is fully exercised. The conversion price sits at approximately US$27.40 per share, a 32.5% premium over the pre-announcement close of US$20.68.

The capped-call structure caps dilution protection at US$41.36 per share, a 100% premium to the reference price. Given Almonty’s 30-day annualised volatility of around 100%, investors are already pricing in the risk that the stock could surge past that ceiling, leaving them exposed to further dilution beyond that threshold.

Where the capital lands

Roughly US$50 million of the proceeds will refinance existing debt, while the lion’s share — about US$543 million — is earmarked for working capital and general corporate purposes, including potential acquisitions. The remaining balance goes toward the capped-call transactions themselves. This capital injection comes at a critical operational inflection point.

Almonty’s Sangdong mine in South Korea is ramping up as planned. Phase one is already delivering output, and phase two — expected in 2027 — will double production capacity. At full tilt, Sangdong is projected to supply roughly 40% of the world’s tungsten demand outside China. That ambition is underpinned by a stunning surge in tungsten prices: ammonium paratungstate has more than tripled since the start of the year, powering the company’s financial turnaround.

First-quarter 2026 revenue jumped 221% year-on-year to C$25.4 million, and adjusted EBITDA reached US$6.1 million. A reported net loss of C$5.3 million is almost entirely attributable to non-cash accounting valuation effects, with the underlying operations swinging solidly into the black. The strong operating momentum, however, has been overshadowed by the convertible note’s dilutive overhang and a broader risk-off tone in commodity stocks.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

Index inclusion as a structural tailwind

Later this month, a different catalyst could provide a more lasting lift. On June 29, Almonty will join the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices. For a company that many institutional funds were previously barred from holding, index membership forces a wave of systematic buying. Roughly US$12.2 trillion in assets tracks these benchmarks, and exchange-traded funds and pension mandates will now have to weight Almonty accordingly.

The convergence of two major corporate events within the same week — the convertible note close and the shareholder meeting — has heightened the stakes. The AGM agenda is routine: setting board size at seven directors, electing directors, and appointing auditors. But after a 21% single-day drop in the stock following the convertible announcement, shareholder sentiment is unusually raw.

External macro data adds another layer. On Wednesday, June 10, the US inflation print for May arrives alongside the Bank of Canada’s rate decision. For a Toronto-listed miner with a global investor base, these inputs can amplify moves in risk appetite and valuation multiples — particularly for growth-sensitive materials stocks.

Technical signals and the long view

The chart tells a cautionary tale. Friday’s close of C$22.70 sits below the 50-day moving average of C$26.64 and just under the 100-day average. The 14-day relative strength index reads 39.3, pointing to weak momentum without tipping into oversold territory. Yet the longer timeframe tells a different story: the stock remains up roughly 89% year-to-date and a staggering 376% over twelve months.

The disconnect between Almonty’s operational acceleration and its recent stock price decline underscores the market’s near-term focus on dilution risk. Management’s hiring of Jorge Beristain as chief financial officer on June 1 signals a commitment to managing the enlarged balance sheet. If Tuesday’s convertible settlement goes smoothly and the AGM passes without disruption, the stage could be set for the Russell rebalancing to provide the next leg up. Whether that narrative holds will become clear in the first trading hours after the deal closes.