Almonty’s Rally Hits a Technical Ceiling as Sangdong Nears Full Production

The numbers are staggering — a 149 percent gain since the start of the year, a share price that has more than septupled over the past twelve months, and a momentum score of 99. Yet Almonty Industries lost roughly seven percent last week, closing at 29.76 CAD on Friday against an all-time high of 32.07 CAD set on April 17. The stock is now trading just seven percent below that record, but the pause has investors asking whether the rally has run ahead of itself.

The fundamental story remains compelling. Tungsten prices have been on a tear, with the APT benchmark surging 534 percent over the trailing twelve months to approximately 2,250 US dollars per metric tonne unit. Since the start of 2026 alone, spot prices have added another 50 percent. Almonty is one of the few Western producers of this strategic metal, placing it squarely in the crosshairs of defense contractors and government procurement agencies looking to secure supply chains outside China.

Sangdong’s Output Looms as the Next Catalyst

Phase 1 of the Sangdong mine in South Korea is now complete. The processing plant is handling roughly 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, producing around 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. A Phase 2 expansion planned for 2027 would double that capacity — potentially covering about 40 percent of global tungsten demand outside China, with a mine life exceeding 45 years.

The commercial ramp-up is imminent, and how smoothly Sangdong transitions into steady-state operations will likely determine the next leg for the stock. Almonty is also working on higher-grade zones at its Panasqueira mine in Portugal, aiming to extend that operation’s lifespan.

Revenue for 2025 rose 13 percent to 32.5 million CAD — a modest but meaningful indicator of what Sangdong could deliver once it reaches full output. The headline net loss of 161.9 million CAD looks alarming at first glance, but 87.3 million CAD of that was a non-cash revaluation of derivative liabilities tied to convertible notes. The underlying business and liquidity position remain unaffected.

A Pivot to Montana and a Well-Stocked Treasury

On April 13, Almonty moved its US headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana. The relocation is both symbolic and strategic, bringing the company closer to potential government clients and industrial partners in the defense supply chain. It follows a heavily oversubscribed US initial public offering that raised 90 million dollars, plus a follow-on financing of 129 million dollars late last year. At the end of 2025, Almonty held 268.4 million CAD in cash and equivalents.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

Several institutional investors have taken notice. Huntleigh Advisors and Old West Investment Management both built new positions during the third quarter, adding to the roster of institutional holders.

Technicals Flash Caution

The rally has been so steep that the stock now trades roughly 21 percent above its 50-day moving average of 24.77 CAD, while the 200-day average sits at 13.58 CAD — less than half the current price. The relative strength index stands at 76.7, firmly in overbought territory, and the 30-day annualized volatility has exceeded 100 percent.

Support levels on the TSX are pegged around 26.34 CAD and 25.17 CAD, with a deeper floor near 24.82 CAD. A break below 28.50 CAD would trigger technical sell signals, according to market technicians. The stock’s weekly loss of roughly seven percent suggests some profit-taking is already underway.

Analyst Divergence Widens

The analyst community is split. Five experts rate the stock a buy, one recommends a strong buy, and one advises selling. The average price target stands at 18.38 USD — well below current trading levels, meaning the market has already outpaced most analysts’ expectations. The consensus rating is “Moderate Buy,” but anyone buying at these levels is acquiring a stock with triple-digit volatility and an RSI that has lingered in elevated territory for weeks.

The operational story is convincing. The valuation question is equally compelling — just in the opposite direction.