Barrick Mining Faces a Two-Front Battle as Gold’s Ceasefire Rally Meets Cost Pressures

The yellow metal snapped a two-day losing streak on Wednesday, climbing back to $4,748 an ounce on the spot market after US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely to allow for further peace talks. That bounce lifted Barrick Mining’s shares in sympathy, but the relief may prove short-lived. The stock had just suffered a 5.8% drubbing on April 21, closing at $40.45, as gold futures for June delivery slipped to around $4,763 — a level that marked the metal’s lowest point since April 13.

Standard Chartered summed up the precarious dynamic succinctly: price action remains hostage to headlines surrounding the US-Iran truce.

A Macro Whipsaw That Hits Barrick Hard

Since the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran began on February 28, gold has shed roughly 11% of its value. That counterintuitive slide — wars usually boost bullion — stems from surging oil prices that have reignited inflation fears, reinforcing expectations that interest rates will stay elevated for longer. For a non-yielding asset like gold, that’s a double blow. And Barrick, whose earnings are directly tied to the realized metal price, feels every tick in the short-term cash-flow projections.

The company has guided for 2026 gold production of 2.90 million to 3.25 million ounces, plus 190,000 to 220,000 tonnes of copper. With that output profile, the prevailing metal price becomes even more central to profit forecasts.

Analysts Hold the Line, But Some Trim Targets

Goldman Sachs is standing by its bold call for gold to reach $5,400 an ounce — roughly 13% above current levels. A sustained recovery would directly bolster Barrick’s revenue base. Nine analysts rate the stock a “Strong Buy” on average, with a median price target implying upside of about 19%.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Barrick Mining?

But not everyone is so bullish. Morgan Stanley recently slashed its gold-price forecast for the second half of 2026 to $5,200 from $5,700. CIBC trimmed its Barrick price target on April 21, a direct response to the metal’s recent weakness. The macro headwinds are also coming from the Fed: the designated chairman Kevin Warsh is calling for tougher anti-inflation measures, making zero-yield gold less attractive to investors.

Operational Strain and a Mega-Project Under Review

Barrick’s production base is already under pressure. 2025 gold output came in at 3.26 million ounces — within guidance but 17% below the prior year and the lowest level in at least 25 years.

Compounding that, the massive Reko Diq project in Pakistan is being slowed by security concerns. A comprehensive review, expected to run through mid-2027, will assess the security environment, capital requirements, project financing, scope, and timeline. Barrick has warned of potentially material cost overruns versus the original budget. Phase 1 was previously pegged at $5.6 billion to $6.0 billion, with Phase 2 estimated at $3.3 billion to $3.6 billion.

Cost Inflation Bites Into Margins

Beyond the gold price, Barrick is grappling with rising expenses. All-in sustaining costs jumped 9% in the fourth quarter, and management sees further pressure ahead. For 2026, total costs are expected to land between $1,760 and $1,950 per ounce. That squeeze comes after a stunning 93% rally in the stock over the past year, making the current correction all the more jarring for investors who piled in during the euphoria.

What’s on the Calendar

Two key dates loom in May. Barrick holds its virtual annual general meeting on May 8. Three days later, on May 11, the miner will release first-quarter 2026 results before the market opens, followed by an analyst conference call at 11:00 a.m. ET. That report will give investors the clearest picture yet of how higher costs and a softer gold price are eating into profitability. Whether the ceasefire with Iran holds until then will likely determine whether gold can stage a meaningful recovery — or whether Barrick’s shares face another leg down.