D-Wave Quantum Faces a Defining Quarter as Orders Surge and Skepticism Lingers

D-Wave Quantum is heading into a critical stretch. The company’s annual shareholder meeting is set for June 4, 2026, but the real moment of truth arrives three weeks earlier on May 12, when first-quarter earnings are due. Investors are bracing for another miss, even as the order book swells to record levels.

The tension between operational momentum and market sentiment has rarely been sharper. Shares of the quantum computing firm currently trade around $20, having shed roughly a third of their value over the past six months. A brief spike in early April — triggered by Nvidia’s unveiling of its Ising model family of AI-powered quantum models, combined with World Quantum Day buzz — sent QBTS up as much as 54% before the rally fizzled.

A Divided Analyst Community

Wall Street is split on what D-Wave is worth. Northland Securities has the most cautious stance, assigning a “Market Perform” rating with a $22 price target. The firm acknowledges the vast addressable market for quantum computing but prefers rival IonQ.

Other banks remain bullish, albeit with trimmed expectations. Mizuho lowered its target to $31 while maintaining a buy rating, praising D-Wave’s dual-technology approach that spans both annealing and gate-model systems. Evercore ISI cut its target to $42 but also kept a buy recommendation. The consensus among 13 analysts stands at $36.76, with not a single sell rating in the bunch.

The Q4 Miss Still Stings

The skepticism is rooted in recent history. In the fourth quarter of 2025, D-Wave missed revenue estimates by a wide margin, posting just $2.75 million against expectations of nearly $1 million more. The loss per share of $0.09 also came in worse than the $0.06 analysts had forecast.

For the full year, the picture was more encouraging. Revenue hit $24.6 million, a 179% jump from the prior year. Gross margin under GAAP climbed to 82.6%. But the net loss remained hefty at $355 million, driven largely by non-cash warrant-related expenses. On an adjusted basis, the loss was $84.5 million.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying D-Wave Quantum?

Orders Are Exploding, But Cash Burns

The bright spot is unmistakable. In the first quarter of 2026, D-Wave secured new orders worth more than $32 million — a sum that exceeds the company’s entire revenue for 2025. That backlog offers a glimpse of future revenue, but the clock is ticking on converting those bookings into recognized sales.

The challenge is that the operating business still consumes cash at an alarming rate. Free cash flow in the most recent quarter was negative $20 million. The company does have a substantial cushion — it ended 2025 with over $635 million in cash and marketable securities, a figure that rises to roughly $885 million when including short-term investments.

An additional overhang comes from the acquisition of Quantum Circuits, which added more than 10 million registered shares to the float. That potential supply of stock for sale has contributed to elevated volatility.

DARPA Program Highlights Sector Shift

The broader quantum landscape is evolving. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is funding the HARQ program, which backs 19 teams developing hybrid quantum systems combining different qubit technologies. D-Wave was not selected as a contractor — its optimization-focused technology doesn’t align with DARPA’s requirements. Still, the company’s dual strategy of pursuing both annealing and gate-model systems mirrors the direction the sector is heading.

What’s at Stake on May 12

The annual meeting on June 4 will cover routine governance matters: electing two directors, approving executive compensation, and appointing Grant Thornton as auditor for fiscal 2026. But the earnings report on May 12 is where the narrative will be shaped.

The market expects another weak quarter. If D-Wave can deliver results that beat those low expectations — or better yet, show that the order boom is translating into recognized revenue — the stock could find a floor. If not, the gap between operational promise and financial reality will only widen.