Liquidity Drain From SpaceX IPO Compounds Scottish Mortgage’s Macro Headaches

The countdown to SpaceX’s much-anticipated stock-market debut is reshaping the investment landscape — and for Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust, the stakes could hardly be higher. The trust, which holds a hefty chunk of its portfolio in the private space giant, is bracing for a week that pits a dividend ex-date and macro jitters against a potential windfall from the listing.

Shares of Scottish Mortgage slipped to €16.55 on Wednesday, leaving the stock roughly 8% lower on the week. The decline accelerated as the ex-dividend date approached: from Thursday, new buyers lose the right to the upcoming payout. The trust’s latest net asset value stood at 1,470.32 pence on a cum-fair basis and 1,468.34 pence excluding current-year income, providing a snapshot of the underlying discount.

Inflation fears remain the primary headwind. US consumer prices rose 4.2% year-on-year in May, with the core rate at 2.9%, keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain elevated borrowing costs. That environment is especially punishing for the high-growth, high-valuation names that dominate Scottish Mortgage’s portfolio. Holdings such as Anthropic, Stripe and Revolut are all leveraged to a low-rate future that keeps being pushed further out.

Oil has added another layer of anxiety. After fresh military escalation between the US and Iran, Brent crude surged to nearly $92 a barrel. Soaring energy costs rekindle inflation fears and, in the UK, have fuelled expectations that the Bank of England could raise rates by 25 basis points by September 2026. Higher discount rates erode the present value of future earnings — exactly the kind of calculus that hits growth-heavy trusts.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Scottish Mortgage Investment?

Despite the selloff, retail investors have been stepping in. On Interactive Investor, buy orders accounted for 73% of trading volume in Scottish Mortgage this week, suggesting bargain-hunters see the correction as an opportunity. The technical picture, however, looks shaky. The stock has fallen below its 50-day moving average of €16.74 and is now more than 15% off its May high. The relative strength index sits at 41, indicating cooling momentum but not yet an oversold condition.

All eyes are on Friday, when SpaceX is expected to make its stock-market debut. The listing is drawing enormous demand — the offering is reportedly oversubscribed four times over. Valuation estimates vary: one source pegs the company at $1.7 trillion, while another puts the figure at $1.75 trillion. Scottish Mortgage’s exposure to the rocket maker is substantial. The trust holds an estimated 17.9% to 21% of its portfolio in SpaceX, with one narrower estimate settling at 18%. A successful debut would provide an immediate boost to the trust’s net asset value and could reverse the recent slide in its shares.

But the event also creates a liquidity trap. Institutional investors are rotating out of established tech stocks to free up cash for the SpaceX allocation, contributing to a 4% drop in the S&P 500 Technology Index this week. Names like Marvell and AMD have taken some of the hardest hits, amplifying the pressure on Scottish Mortgage’s quoted holdings.

For Scottish Mortgage, Friday represents a binary moment. A smooth IPO would validate the trust’s long-running bet on private markets and give its share price a catalyst it badly needs. A stumble, on the other hand, risks testing recent lows and deepening the discount. With the dividend now behind it and the macro outlook uncertain, the safe money is on volatility either way.