The week before Microsoft’s quarterly earnings is rarely quiet, but the tech giant has outdone itself with a barrage of news spanning two continents. On one side, a record-breaking infrastructure pledge Down Under; on the other, a costly legal setback in London.
A Record Splash in the Pacific
On April 24, Microsoft unveiled its largest-ever single investment in Australia: roughly A$25 billion earmarked for cloud and AI infrastructure through the end of 2029. The centerpiece is a planned expansion of Azure capacity by more than 140% by 2030, building on 29 existing sites across three Azure regions already operating in the country.
The package extends well beyond data centers. Microsoft is deepening its security partnership with the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) and committing to train three million Australians in AI skills — a program that will reach schools, government agencies, and private companies.
London Court Greenlights Massive Class Action
The Australian news was welcome. Less so was the decision handed down by a British court on April 22. A class action valued at roughly £2.1 billion was allowed to proceed, with nearly 60,000 UK organizations accusing Microsoft of anti-competitive licensing practices. The plaintiffs allege the company charged inflated prices for running Windows Server on rival cloud platforms such as AWS and Google Cloud.
The court opted for an opt-out mechanism, meaning affected organizations are automatically included in the lawsuit unless they actively choose to withdraw.
The Market’s Mood: Cautious at Best
Microsoft’s stock has been on a rollercoaster. After a 21% recovery from its late-March low, shares were jolted on April 23 by a sector-wide selloff triggered by ServiceNow’s disappointing quarterly results. The selloff reignited fears that AI applications might be squeezing traditional software-as-a-service providers — a dynamic that cuts uncomfortably close to Microsoft’s core business.
Year to date, the stock has shed roughly 14%. It currently trades at around €359, still more than 23% below its 52-week high. The valuation, however, has become more compelling: the price-to-earnings ratio of 26 sits well below the five-year average of 34. GuruFocus pegs the fair value at roughly $542 per share — about 23% above the current price. Of 49 analysts covering the stock, 41 rate it a “Strong Buy.”
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Microsoft?
Fairwater: A Glimpse of Relief
Amid the turbulence, CEO Satya Nadella offered a tangible sign of progress. The Fairwater data center in Mount Pleasant, Wisconsin, is coming online ahead of schedule. The facility spans 1.2 million square feet and links hundreds of thousands of Nvidia GPUs into a single cluster. Microsoft has committed more than $7 billion to its Wisconsin operations overall.
The message is clear: the capacity bottlenecks that have constrained Azure’s growth may be easing faster than expected. Microsoft has not yet confirmed whether workloads are already running on the site, but the early activation signals that supply constraints could loosen sooner than feared.
The Big Question: Azure Growth and the OpenAI Backlog
All eyes are now on Wednesday, April 29, when Microsoft reports fiscal third-quarter 2026 results after the U.S. market close. Analysts expect adjusted earnings per share of $4.04, a gain of nearly 17% year over year. The company has beaten consensus in each of the past four quarters.
The critical focus will be on the “Intelligent Cloud” segment, where AI has already contributed double-digit percentage points to Azure’s growth. In the second quarter, Azure expanded 39% year over year — a deceleration of one percentage point from the prior quarter. That slowdown triggered a nearly 10% single-day stock drop, even though revenue and profit topped expectations.
Investors will also scrutinize the backlog. At the end of December, it stood at $625 billion. But $281 billion of that — or 45% — came from OpenAI alone. Skeptics question the durability of that portion, and Microsoft will need to address those doubts head-on.
The stakes are high. Massive infrastructure spending is weighing on margins, and the market wants proof that the payoff is coming. Whether Nadella can convince investors on April 29 will depend heavily on what he says about Azure’s trajectory and the OpenAI backlog’s reliability.
Ad
Microsoft Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Microsoft Analysis from June 9 delivers the answer:
The latest Microsoft figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Microsoft investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from June 9.
Microsoft: Buy or sell? Read more here...
