Airbus Faces a Critical Juncture: A350F Progress Meets Q1 Headwinds

Airbus is navigating a period of stark contrasts. The aerospace giant is celebrating a major technical milestone for its A350F freighter program while simultaneously bracing for a quarterly earnings report that is expected to reveal a sharp drop in deliveries and revenue. The tension between long-term product development and short-term operational strain has rarely been more pronounced.

The last major structural component for the A350F prototype has arrived in Toulouse. The massive main-deck cargo door, the largest ever built for the aviation industry, was manufactured in Illescas, Spain, and is now being integrated into the first test aircraft. Chief engineer Joel Rocker described the delivery as a turning point, estimating that technicians will need roughly a month to complete the installation. If the subsequent safety checks proceed without issue, the freighter is slated for its maiden flight in early autumn, with October serving as a fallback date. Airbus is building two test aircraft for certification, targeting a market launch by the end of 2027. European and US regulators have already begun reviewing initial documentation, with about a third of the required paperwork submitted. The company expects to have half of it ready by the time the aircraft takes to the skies.

The A350F is designed to challenge Boeing’s long-standing dominance in the freighter market. Built with over 70 percent advanced materials, the aircraft promises a significant weight reduction compared to rivals, along with a 20 percent improvement in fuel efficiency. The 4.3-meter-high cargo door is specifically engineered to accommodate the increasingly large engines that are becoming industry standard, a feature that gains importance as Boeing’s nose-loading competitor gradually exits the market. The freighter will have a payload capacity of 111 tonnes and will meet stringent CO2 standards from day one, operating initially with up to 50 percent sustainable aviation fuel. Airbus has set a target of running the aircraft entirely on these alternative fuels by 2030. The program has so far collected just over 100 orders.

Yet on the commercial side, the picture is far less rosy. Airbus is expected to report first-quarter results on April 28, and analysts are bracing for disappointment. Revenue is forecast at around €12.4 billion, roughly 8 percent below the same period last year. Deliveries are projected to fall to approximately 114 aircraft, down from 136 in Q1 2025. The shortfall is attributed to lower production volumes, an unfavorable aircraft mix, and persistent supply chain disruptions, including panel defects and repair bottlenecks.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Airbus?

The stock market has already priced in much of the gloom. Airbus shares are trading at €41.20, down nearly 16 percent year-to-date and well below their 200-day moving average. The relative strength index has plunged to around 11, a reading that signals an extremely oversold condition. The gap to the long-term average line is close to 13 percent, reflecting deep investor unease.

Against this backdrop, CEO Guillaume Faury made a diplomatic trip to Beijing on April 23-24, meeting with Chinese Trade Minister Wang Wentao. Wang expressed China’s desire for even closer cooperation with Airbus in the aviation market. The timing is strategic: Airbus operates a second A320 final assembly line in Tianjin, and a 2023 framework agreement calls for the delivery of 160 aircraft to Chinese airlines. With a total order backlog of nearly 8,800 aircraft, a substantial portion tied to Chinese customers, maintaining strong ties with Beijing is non-negotiable.

The company’s annual general meeting on April 14 also brought changes to the board. Henriette Hallberg Thygesen, CEO of Danish defense and aerospace firm Terma A/S, was appointed for a three-year term, while BMW CEO Oliver Zipse received a one-year mandate. More significantly, board chairman René Obermann will step down on October 1, 2026, with current lead independent director Amparo Moraleda designated as his successor. The dividend for fiscal 2025 was set at €3.20 per share, with the ex-dividend date falling on April 21.

All eyes now turn to Monday’s earnings release. The key question is whether the actual delivery numbers will deviate from the already lowered expectations. If they match or beat the subdued forecasts, the stock’s deeply oversold condition could provide a springboard for recovery. If they fall short, the pressure on management to explain the production ramp-up trajectory will intensify. Either way, the A350F’s steady progress toward its first flight offers a counterweight to the immediate operational challenges — a reminder that Airbus is playing a long game, even as it weathers a turbulent quarter.